Daily Adams

Wisconsin: The State of the Race

There’s a new Marquette Law School Poll today, that shows a continuing double-digit lead for Obama over Romney, but a closer US Senate race between Baldwin and Thompson.

It’s Obama 53, Romney 42; Baldwin 48, Thompson 44.

A few quick impressions –

1. Obama still leads by eleven, on this poll, despite Ryan’s spot on the GOP ticket. That’s not a competitive race.

2. Although Baldwin now leads by less than in the previous Marquette Poll (where she led by 9, 50-41), there are few Wisconsinites who thought she was ever truly ahead of Thompson by that much. This current poll is probably a better measure of where the race is, and where it has been (based on other polls).

The story will be that Thompson’s closer now, but the truth is that pollster Charles Franklin’s latest effort for Marquette is simply closer to others’ polls.

3. Neither Republican is out of the low to mid-forties. That’s especially telling in former Gov. Thompson’s case, despite a long tenure as a popular governor. That native Wisconsinite Thompson and native Wisconsinite Ryan (as the second half of a team) are polling below the high forties is telling. They should both be doing better.

They may yet win, of course, but the GOP is behind the Democrats in both races, despite native sons on the Republican ticket.

That’s the current state of these Wisconsin contests.

For a previous post on the first Wisconsin US Senate debate, see The Baldwin-Thompson U.S. Senate Debate (9.28.12).

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